Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 14.126591 16.160189 18.352053 20.886245 23.731485 26.823233 30.433051
2025-03-02 11.222780 13.997205 17.219820 21.223721 26.047799 31.654594 38.645394
2025-03-09 9.596778 12.657753 16.388171 21.239373 27.348325 34.749948 44.356756
2025-03-16 8.255599 11.454471 15.525216 21.038871 28.258365 37.329854 49.521935
2025-03-23 7.378624 10.696115 15.077819 21.222381 29.538174 40.311605 55.218502
2025-03-30 6.836366 10.307197 15.046236 21.899667 31.448427 44.154369 62.185457
2025-04-06 6.107826 9.567130 14.444625 21.710076 32.117792 46.322481 66.967376
2025-04-13 5.233822 8.519097 13.302672 20.641116 31.445902 46.564864 69.057550
2025-04-20 4.897294 8.237913 13.237405 21.100950 32.949850 49.880122 75.563058
2025-04-27 4.584782 7.959206 13.143331 21.492869 34.352046 53.090577 82.039930
2025-05-04 4.189645 7.507957 12.741706 21.373075 34.958091 55.142920 86.892149
2025-05-11 3.803792 7.033518 12.260940 21.083784 35.266712 56.740567 91.108279
2025-05-18 3.519942 6.712404 12.012056 21.160989 36.172730 59.318744 96.986197
2025-05-25 3.293397 6.469912 11.873011 21.404050 37.350928 62.366487 103.723381
2025-06-01 3.056560 6.184295 11.633904 21.453211 38.199266 64.913902 109.761678
2025-06-08 2.800282 5.837540 11.259528 21.239645 38.588278 66.731693 114.702333
2025-06-15 2.630906 5.637699 11.126442 21.428579 39.651577 69.666467 121.536391
2025-06-22 2.546323 5.593781 11.269507 22.110437 41.586661 74.102380 130.984149
2025-06-29 2.349451 5.307861 10.943276 21.919655 41.983366 75.986441 136.279331
2025-07-06 2.059500 4.803338 10.165117 20.841233 40.738880 75.031406 136.760601
2025-07-13 1.979664 4.730325 10.210419 21.305127 42.287074 78.905945 145.568721
2025-07-20 1.897123 4.643581 10.221220 21.700441 43.723815 82.637515 154.262643
2025-07-27 1.765540 4.436594 9.975442 21.579610 44.190968 84.678026 160.086121